DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/21 11:03
Grains Mixed at Midday
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 50. The dollar index is 5
points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat. Livestock
trade is mixed. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold $3.00 lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from the
upper end of the range to start the week as we try to find some equilibrium
after the moves at the end of last week. Ethanol margins remain tight, with
futures just above the lows with export business needing to pick up, or we will
likely see plants being idled again soon. U.S. weather will likely limit
short-term movement in most areas with warmer weather expected to be on the
way. Basis should remain sideways to slightly firmer. Export inspections were
soft at 345,589 metric tons with trade looking for confirmation of last week's
rumored sales with the wire quiet today. On the March contract support is the
20-day at $3.86, with resistance the recent high at $3.92.
Soybeans trade is 11 to 13 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back
with South American harvest getting underway along with limited short-term
weather issues, and no major export sales from the U.S. confirmed yet. Meal is
flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 65 to 75 points lower. The Brazilian ral
remains very cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness. South American
weather remains within the recent pattern for soybeans as well. Basis has
remained firm at processors with the strong crush margins. Weekly export
inspections are expected to be in the 1.199 million metric ton range. The March
chart support is at the December gap at $9.15 with resistance the 20-day at
Wheat trade 2 to 7 cents higher with Chicago taking the midday lead again
with spreads testing the recent highs. Cold threats remain limited for the
plains with most of the moisture staying to the east, with western snow cover
remaining limited, and warmer temps expected to return to most short term. KC
is at an 80 cent discount to Chicago, while Minneapolis is back to a 12 cent
discount. Weekly export inspections were rangebound at 435,129 metric tons. The
March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.81, with
resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 5.04.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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